25% chance of a White Christmas in Southport this year.
There is a 25% chance of a White Christmas in Southport this year according to https://www.willigetawhitechristmas.com/.
The Met Office can accurately forecast whether snow is likely on any given Christmas Day up to five days beforehand.
Around half of the years since 1960 have seen at least 5% of the network of locations recording snow on Christmas Day.
Widespread snow is much rarer. There has only been a widespread covering of snow on the ground recorded at 40% of weather stations in the UK four times in the last 51 years – in 1981, 1995, 2009, and 2010
What is a white Christmas?
When most people think of a white Christmas, they picture blankets of snow covering hillsides for miles around.
In fact, Christmas can be white if at least one solitary snowflake falls in a specific location during the 24 hours of Christmas day, according to the Met Office.
When was the last white Christmas in the UK?
The last widespread white Christmas in the UK was in 2010, when 83% of weather stations recorded snow on the ground.
More recently 2020 was recorded as a white Christmas, after snow fell in parts of East Yorkshire and Suffolk.
Perthshire, Scotland had 47cm of snow on December 25, 1981, the deepest figure ever recorded, while Gainford, Durham, had the coldest Christmas Day in 1878 at -18.3C.
According to the Met Office the UK averages 3.9 days of snow and sleet in December – although snowfall is much more likely after the festive season, with an average of 5.3 days in January.
Met Office’s long-range weather forecast for the Christmas period suggests that we could be in for a milder spell around that time – and rain rather than snow.
‘Going into the Christmas period, it is likely to be milder than earlier in the month, with temperatures near to, or above normal, although some colder spells remain possible,’ they have said on their website.
‘It is likely to become more settled around Christmas and towards New Year with increased chance of overnight frost and fog during clearer spells.’
Ladbrokes, meanwhile, are offering odds of 1/3 on the white stuff falling anywhere in the UK on Christmas Day – with Edinburgh being seen as the most likely place to have snow, at 5/2.
So it’s looking hopeful for those of you in Scotland – but London residents look far less likely to see snow on Christmas Day, with odds of 5/1 on festive flakes.
Scotland’s odds are 1/2, England at 5/4, Northern Ireland at 3/1, and Wales at a measly 9/2.
The rest of the odds are as follows:
- Birmingham – 3/1
- Newcastle – 3/1
- Belfast – 4/1
- Dublin – 4/1
- Liverpool – 4/1
- Manchester – 4/1
- Cardiff – 6/1