All eyes on Birkdale and Kew in Thursdays' council elections in Southport

Southport journalist Martin Hovden writes: One thing is certain about the results of the Sefton Council elections on Thursday: Labour will retain control of the borough.

Even with the recent defection of five Labour members in the Maghull area, the 43-strong Labour Group still has nearly twice the number of councillors than all the other parties put together.

But there could be a few surprises here in Southport. Seven seats are up for grabs and special attention should be paid to two wards – Birkdale and Kew.

Earlier this week BBC election guru Sir John Curtice urged people to compare this week's results to last year's, rather than when the seats were last fought in 2018 (the first local elections for then Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn) if we want an accurate reflection of how people feel about the current national political scene.

As a result Thursday's result will be a real litmus test of people's view of Boris Johnson and his involvement with Partygate, the cost of living crisis, the Ukrainian war etc.

And if there is a backlash against the Prime Minister, there's bound to be a domino effect on Conservative candidates all over the country.

So watch out for the result in Birkdale. Tory activist Lee Durkin came within 26 votes of winning the seat last year (he lost to Labour's Sonya Ann Kelly who won with 1125) and has been very active in the ward since then. Will his share of the vote drop dramatically if people have a negative view of Boris Johnson? Or have people moved on and forgiven the PM?

Add to this the person fighting to hold onto his Birkdale seat is Liberal Democrat war horse Ian Brodie-Browne and the battle gets even more interesting, especially as Lib Dem votes tend to come at the expense of Labour. So will Labour and the Lib Dems split the vote, allowing the Tories to win?

The Kew result will be a test of Sir Keir Starmer's leadership of the Labour Party. Just a few weeks ago, sitting Labour Councillor Janis Blackburne was all set to fight the election, when out of the blue she was told by Labour's regional office that she had been suspended because of her support of tweets by former leader Jeremy Corbyn.

As I said then, it was a disgrace that Southport Labour Party failed to say a word about the treatment of Janice Blackburn, nor any acknowledgement of the work she had done in the ward.

Labour was quick to parachute in a new candidate in the form of Laura Lunn Bates. Until the suspension of Janice, Laura was fighting hard to be elected in the Dukes ward (where she lives). It doesn't say much for Labour's loyalty to Dukes when they suddenly pull their candidate to fight in another ward. Hoping to hold onto his seat in Dukes is veteran Conservative Sir Ron Watson.

Politics is a funny old game.

Polling stations are open form 7am-10pm on Thursday (May 5).